Aidan Neill

The current notional value of outstanding global financial derivative contracts stands at close to $600 trillion. That’s quite a figure; roughly ten times annual global GDP. Only 10% of these derivatives flow through regulated exchanges, with 90% traded “over-the-counter” on a bilateral basis between institutions. At the moment there is little reliable information on what goes on in the “OTC” market. From a risk perspective current proposals to increase transparency and adjust capital requirements make good sense. On the flipside, if…

Read More Read More

Amidst the staggering news flow of the past few weeks, Ireland’s debt crisis and its status in the Eurozone, has been relatively low on the international agenda, but potentially epoch making for Irish people. Ultimately, Ireland will have to default on some of its obligations – they have grown (and will continue to grow) to the point where they are simply too great to sustain. The new coalition government needs to play their hand with subtle aggression. Burden sharing is…

Read More Read More

Analysis: Last week saw high-yield bond yields drop below an average of 7% for the first time in six years, according to BofA Merrill Lynch data. On the face of it this is good news: low recent default rates should persuade lenders to dish out more loans to small businesses, while low costs of capital for businesses will encourage hiring and expansion. The wider problem is that most of the high-yield market’s performance stems from investors needing to find somewhere…

Read More Read More

Analysis: Facebook has recently raised around $2bn in new funding from Goldman Sachs and other investors in a deal that values the social networking business at around $50bn. While the company recently reported being “free cashflow positive” (it makes money) for the first time, the valuation reflects a multiple of earnings that is likely to be well into the hundreds, if not thousands. In a similar vein, the 19th Century saw huge investment in the railroad infrastructure in the US….

Read More Read More